John Settle.jpg

John came to Shreveport in January of 1977 when he was transferred to Barksdale AFB.

He’s been active in Shreveport politics since deciding to make Shreveport his home.

John practiced law for 40 years and he now monitors local politics. He regularly attends Shreveport City Council and Caddo Parish Commission meetings.

John is published weekly in The Inquisitor, bi-monthly in The Forum News, and frequently in the Shreveport Times.

He enjoys addressing civic groups on local government issues and elections.

 

Campaign Contributions And Poll Show Tyler In Trouble

There’s an old saying in politics that money does not vote. But money gets votes.

 

Shreveport Mayor Ollie Tyler’s recently released campaign finance reports show that her candidacy is not doing well, to put it mildly.

 

Couple that with a recently released poll, and its no surprise that Tyler has gone underground in the sense of ducking public forums –or any venue in which she can be asked questions.

 

Tyler attended the first televised mayoral forum last week. She ducked the next two, saying she had city business.

 

Evidently she considers getting a political endorsement from a local black church last Wednesday night, rather than attend a forum, to be “city business.” As they say, there is business, and then, there is BUSINESS!

 

Tyler’s fundraising during the March 1 to September 27 reporting period was lackluster at best. Virtually all political observers say the dollars raised by Tyler were dismal, if not pathetic.

 

Adrian Perkin’s campaign collected $17 grand more than Tyler. And over 50% of Tyler’s money came from Shreveport contractors and vendors.

 

A Verne Kennedy poll confirmed what most politicos have believed since the qualifying ended. That Tyler can easily beat either of the two Republicans in the race—Lee O. Savage and Jim Taliaferro.

 

More importantly, the poll validated what many have believed from day one about Tyler’s re-election chances. Simply put, she is in trouble if a Democrat is in the run-off election with her.

 

The poll’s key question was “If an election were held today, would you want to see Ollie Tyler re-elected mayor, or would you prefer to that someone else be given the chance to do better?”

 

The answers were 106 (35%) to re-elect Tyler, 137 (46%) to elect someone new, and 57 (19%) not sure.

 

The analysis of these numbers is critical.

 

“ With 99% recognition only 35% want Tyler re-elected meaning 65% do not or have strong hesitation voting to re-elect her. MRI has used this re-elect questions in over 1,000 surveys. Incumbents with over 50% re-elect are usually re-elected. Those with between 40% and 49% have no more than a 50% chance of re-election depending on the quality of the opponent had his or her campaign. Incumbents with less than 40% re-elect are generally defeated. AT 35% RE-ELECT TYLER HAS A VERY LOW PROBABLY OF RE-ELECTION IF AGAINST A DEMOCRAT IN THE RUN-OFF.”

 

The Kennedy poll was conducted between October 16-18, with 400 calls to cell phones (222) and land lines (178).

 

Those called were 202 African-Americans, 194 white and 4 others.

 

The male-female breakdown was 168-232.

 

The ages of the those polled average 20% between 5 age brackets starting from 18-34 to a group over 65.

 

Although the pool size (400) was small, it represented the Shreveport voter profile by ethnicity, gender, age, and phone access.

 

Needless to say, the poll has two major effects.

 

No doubt it will fuel the Perkin’s campaign which has steadily been building wide spread support throughout the city.

 

Likewise , the poll conclusions should dampen the Tyler campaign which seemingly stalled out in the last few weeks.

 

And for the Republicans, it should be a nail in the coffin, — for both challengers.

(This article was published in The Inquisitor on Thursday, October 25, 2018)

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