Bill McCollum
Narratives exist because we demand them. We crave easily understandable explanations for the chaos around us. Discerning narratives is difficult because they speak to our innate senses of fear and greed, and they contain some elements of truth.
Remember last year? (It seems like an eternity ago given the events year-to-date!) Last year, the prevailing narrative was that President Trump’s tariff policies would incite economic inflation from rising supply costs or, worse, cut off America from her global trading partners.
Subsequently, the US Dollar would rapidly devalue, and foreign investors would dump their holdings of US Treasury bonds (“sell America”). Without buyers for its debt, the US would be unable to fund annual budget deficits or refinance Trillions in outstanding
debt. Interest rates would spike and stay high, anchored by higher inflation expectations…a vicious spiral with no end in sight.
Scary stuff + some elements of truth = believable narrative. For what purpose? Narrative spinners always have a motive, and the motive is power or greed or both. Knowledge is power, and “I know something you don’t” is a power move. More importantly, who profits?
Fear is the currency of conspiracy theorists, “gold bugs” (not to be confused with legitimate precious metals dealers) and crypto currency influencers. Nothing sells gold and alternative currencies like fearful slogans, such as the world is ending, the US Dollar is worthless fiat paper, America is a failed experiment, etc.
That was Spring 2025. What has happened since? Bitcoin peaked in October and subsequently fell 40% over four months! Gold and, to a much greater degree, silver, propelled higher, proving themselves to be relatively “real” stores of value. But like anything else pumped by narratives and greed, gold and silver eventually corrected: down 10 and 30%, respectively, in one day!
America is now at war with Iran. During times of war investors expectedly reduce their exposure to risky investments and seek out “safe havens”. As of this writing, since the start of hostilities on February 28th, gold and silver are down in price. What’s up? The US Dollar.
By the way, foreign purchases of US assets accelerated last year, led by demand for stocks and…US Treasury bonds.
As R.E.M. famously sang, “It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.”